Most established live-service and evergreen titles were flat or declined year-over-year in the first half of 2026, Newzoo's latest Global Games Market Report shows, leaving growth confined to a handful of franchises and one console tentpole.

The data firm logged declines or stagnation across the bulk of the live-service catalogue in H1 2026. Growth registered only in World of Warcraft, Diablo 4, Overwatch, Roblox, and a selection of international releases from Tencent. Newzoo attributed the broader softness to "free-to-play and annualised premium weakness outweighing strong new releases."

Which segments actually grew in H1 2026?

Digital revenues declined year-on-year across six Western markets, but PlayStation Plus is expected to lift multi-game subscription services through the second half. Console player growth is forecast at 3% for full-year 2026, up from roughly 0.5% in 2025.

Grand Theft Auto 6 anchors that reacceleration on PlayStation, with first-party titles on Nintendo Switch 2 expected to broaden the install base for generation 9 hardware. Nielsen IQ data cited by Newzoo shows PlayStation 5 and Xbox console sales in the UK rose 33% and 34% respectively after the GTA 6 premiere on Netflix.

How exposed is the console outlook to a single release?

Emmanuel "Manu" Rosier, Newzoo's director of market intelligence, told GamesIndustry.biz that without GTA 6, console revenues would remain flat compared to 2025. That framing puts the 2026 console growth forecast on the shoulders of one Rockstar release. Switch 2 attach rates and the durability of the post-launch hardware lift are the next variables publishers will track into the holiday quarter.

Where did the public publishers land in Q1 2026?

The top 10 public games companies generated $37.4 billion in game revenue during the quarter, up 6.7% year-on-year. Tencent led at $10.8 billion (up 11.9%), followed by Sony at $5.2 billion (down 0.9%) and Microsoft at $5.1 billion (down 5.5%). Roblox rounded out the top 10 at $1.4 billion, up 39.3% year-on-year.

The combined top three accounted for roughly $21.1 billion, or about 56% of the top-10 figure. Roblox's 39.3% year-on-year growth outpaced the cohort by a wide margin, underscoring the UGC model's continued outperformance within the broader market.

What does the full-year outlook say about monetisation?

Newzoo holds its 2026 global games market forecast at $213.9 billion, up 6.1% year-on-year. Asia-Pacific contributes $100.7 billion, with China alone at $58.1 billion. North America ranks second at $56.9 billion, of which the US accounts for $53.5 billion.

Player numbers are projected to reach 3.7 billion, up 4.4% year-on-year. Spenders now make up 44.6% of the total player base, compared with 39.4% in 2015. Total ARPPU is forecast at $129.6, a 1.4% lift that Newzoo attributed to "deeper spending within the existing base." That ARPPU trajectory indicates revenue per payer continues to climb even as spender share plateaus, with direct implications for live-service design and retention budgets.

The combination of stagnant catalogue revenue, a narrow group of growth franchises, and a console lifeline tied to one flagship release leaves publishers heavily exposed to single-title dependency through the rest of 2026. Switch 2 attach rates, GTA 6 post-launch retention, and Western free-to-play monetisation trends are the signals worth watching into H2.