Rockstar's delayed GTA VI will cost the console segment an estimated $2.7 billion in total revenue, with 21 million fewer game copies sold on PS5 and Xbox Series S|X and 700,000 fewer console sales than previously forecast, according to Ampere Analysis' 2025 games market report.

The wider backdrop is a market that grew but barely. Gaming content and services reached $199.4 billion at the end of 2024, up 3.5% year over year — a figure Ampere itself tempers, noting that adjusted for inflation, real growth was notably smaller.

What does the forecast say for 2025 and 2026?

Ampere anticipates modest expansion:

• 0.9% growth in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026
• Total market volume of $205.7 billion by end of 2026
• Mobile growing 2-3% per year, holding a 58% share of the total market after 4.1% growth in 2024
• North America and Europe each projected to decline 0.4% in 2025
• MENA expected to lead regional growth at 6.3%

Asia-Pacific remains the anchor market at $92.9 billion — almost twice North America's $57.7 billion — and is expected to grow again in 2025.

Why is the console business stalling?

The console segment showed zero growth in 2024, and Ampere expects stagnation until 2026, when GTA VI is anticipated to launch. The Nintendo Switch 2 launch and its associated software sales are not expected to meaningfully lift segment revenue. Note that Ampere's console figures include subscriptions such as PS Plus and Game Pass.

PC was the fastest-growing segment in 2024 at 5.7%, and Ampere is optimistic on its future given its global reach — though in absolute terms PC still trails both mobile and console.

Ampere projects 103.1 million Nintendo Switch 2 units sold worldwide by 2030, with a combined active audience of around 130 million across both Switch consoles between late 2026 and 2028-2029.

Where is the money in platform monetization?

Revenue share from in-game purchases and DLC remains heavily skewed toward Sony: 65% versus Microsoft's 31% and Nintendo's 4%.

In-app purchases accounted for 77% of all game payments in 2024 — stable since 2019. Subscription spending keeps climbing, while Ampere expects physical game sales to shrink to just 2% of total revenue by 2026.

Handheld PC is a small but growing target. Steam Deck sold 4.1 million units worldwide by end of 2024, with Ampere expecting 7.9 million by 2027 — a base the report argues developers shouldn't ignore if portable PC support is technically feasible.

For mobile teams, web games, web gaming platforms and direct-to-consumer channels could add $3.7 billion in revenue excluding China. Ampere cautions that D2C doesn't expand the audience; it improves conversion efficiency.

Who is still playing?

The US gamer base has contracted by 21 million since its 2021 peak: from 223 million people (67% of the population) to 202 million (59%) in 2024. Even so, the US market has grown in volume since 2021 — spending per player is up.

Ampere flags two audience segments:

• 16 million US women aged 16-24; 82% play games versus 93% of males, playing four hours less on average and spending 50% less
• 33 million US gamers over 55, or 32% of that age group, with the cohort expected to grow by 2030

UGC platforms — Roblox, Fortnite, Minecraft — play a major role in reaching young players. Over 35 million US gamers are under 16, and 37% of US Roblox players are under 13. Ampere's analysts argue owners of major gaming brands should engage audiences on UGC platforms directly rather than wait for players to age into traditional titles.

On funding, early-stage investment activity is recovering slowly, but deal volumes remain far below the record highs of 2021 and 2022.

Ampere's operational takeaway for studios: time-to-market is now the decisive factor, as long development cycles are expensive and often miss market windows. The firm offers no universal recipe for success — and no clear verdict on single-player versus multiplayer, since attitudes vary by market — but points to audience appetite for atypical narratives built on local myths and stories.

The number to watch: whether console stagnation holds through 2026 as forecast, or whether the Switch 2's install base beats Ampere's 103.1 million trajectory once GTA VI finally ships.